Development Market Outlook in ERCOT

Carl Fleming, a member of McDermott’s Energy and Project Finance Group and head of its Energy Storage Team, hosted a panel of industry leaders from Vistra, UKA North America and Origis that explored the opportunities and challenges for utility-scale solar and standalone energy storage development in the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT). Here are the key takeaways:

1. A huge wave of solar and standalone storage projects is hitting ERCOT. Per recent reports, as of September 2021, developers had more than 100GW of solar, 42GW of utility-scale battery storage, 22GW of wind and 13GW of natural gas in the queue.

2. It’s unclear what the future holds for the market due to transmission congestion, the impact of so much solar going online and its effects on the power price curve, as well as supply chain issues.

3. Transmission congestion is affecting the ability to deliver power from some of the most resource-rich areas. However, ERCOT remains more predictable than certain other markets that have recently announced temporary pauses in processing the transmission pipeline queue.

4. The large increase of solar on the system in such a short period of time is already having impacts on the power price curve. However, certain corporates in their efforts to meet environmental, social and governance (ESG) goals are willing to build for more than purely economic reasons and can help offset that volatility to a degree.

5. Supply chain issues continue and are expected to worsen, resulting in increased risks around projects costs and completion. While this has resulted in a number of developers having to revisit their power purchase agreements, those with robust procurement programs were able to mitigate this risk in advance and have been able to continue business as usual.

6. The use of quantitative analytics or “quants” in project development is growing and has enabled certain developers to optimize energy storage project location in ERCOT as well as optimize their project outputs. The key, however, is properly integrating the quantitative data into the project development decision making process.

Carl Fleming and his team in Houston are currently leading a large number of solar, wind and storage transactions across ERCOT for leading developers and private equity funds. In particular, they are enabling a number of first-in-kind battery storage transactions utilizing newer technologies and investment strategies.




Key Takeaways | Energy Storage Opportunities and Challenges

What are the opportunities and challenges facing those in the energy storage sector? During the latest webinar in our Energy Transition series, Partner Jim Salerno hosted Perfect Power’s CEO and President Alan Dash and Chief Commercial Officer Douglas Sherman for a 30-minute discussion where they opined on the importance of battery storage and the differences between regulated and unregulated markets within the energy storage industry.


Below are the key takeaways from this discussion:

1. Utility-scale battery storage is necessary for transitioning the grid from fossil fuels to renewables. The surge of renewables across grids has resulted in unpredictability, volatility and intermittency in the energy market, creating a need for a new form of peaking. Batteries are becoming the ideal peaking units as their fast ramping capabilities allow them to adapt to shortfalls in the grid and create stability.

2. Battery storage, unlike renewables, provides capacity as well as ancillary services. This concept is known as “value stacking.” In addition to storage capabilities, ancillary services allow batteries to manage volatility and uncertainty in the grid by providing tools that keep the system in balance and establish the ability to arbitrage the Real Time Market while creating predictability in the Day-Ahead Market.

3. The current regulatory and merchant markets are evolving to facilitate renewables and storage project development. In unregulated markets, such as Texas, the integration of renewables into the grid has grown organically because of the efficiency, speed and economic benefits that are derived from renewables and battery storage. Meanwhile, highly regulated markets, such as California, are focusing on resource adequacy, market certainty and incentives to promote capital investment in the clean energy space—including battery storage.

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McDermott Will & Emery Named 2021 Project Finance Group of the Year

We are pleased to share that our Energy & Project Finance Group was recently recognized as a 2021 Law360 Practice Group of the Year for Project Finance.

We have made impressive strides in 2021 with exponential team and matter growth globally. The group’s multifaceted experience in both renewable and conventional energy, as well as in the infrastructure sector, combined with the group’s excellent thought leadership, has led to this recognition.

From closing fast-moving energy deals to help drive a carbon-neutral economy to hosting industry experts for a bi-weekly discussion on how the Energy Transition is shaping our industry, the Energy & Project Finance Group is committed to providing comprehensive advice in any area of energy law.

Read the full article.




Key Takeaways | Outlook for Competitive Power in 2022

On February 2, Neil Levy and David Tewksbury, partners in McDermott’s Energy Regulatory, Markets & Reliability Practice Group, hosted Todd Snitchler, president and CEO of the Electric Power Supply Association (EPSA), for an in-depth discussion about developments affecting the competitive power sector as we move into 2022.


Below are the key takeaways from this discussion:

  • Competition has benefited consumers by shifting risk from consumers to investors, lowering prices, and reducing emissions, while improving reliability. However, competitive power markets are facing challenges due to recent state actions and FERC decisions.
  • Carbon pricing would be one way to address concerns regarding emissions within a competitive market framework.
  • The federal government and states need to work together to preserve competition and ensure that state goals do not jeopardize reliability.
  • Steps must be taken to ensure that resources required for reliability are not pushed out of the market.
  • States have been focused on emissions reductions by subsidizing certain types of resources, which can result in lower market prices. At the same time, recent FERC actions have also reduced revenues for various resources.

To access past webinars in this series and to begin receiving Energy updates, including invitations to the webinar series, please click here.




Key Takeaways | Finding and Structuring Development Capital for Renewable Platforms and Projects

During the latest webinar in our Energy Transition series, McDermott Partners Christopher Gladbach and Joel Hugenberger hosted Angel Fierro, managing partner of PLEXUS Solutions, and Jorge Vargas, managing partner & co-founder of Aspen Power Partners, to discuss what financing is available to fund the development of projects before they reach notice to proceed (NTP). They also covered what capital providers and developers consider when approaching development capital to fund pre-NTP expenses and general business expansion and the challenges and opportunities associated with these financing products.

Below are key takeaways from the webinar:

1. The market for pre-NTP financing is expanding and diversifying. Traditionally, pre-NTP costs were covered by a developer using the development fee they received from selling a completed project or by granting preferred equity. Today, large credit funds, Environmental, Social and Corporate Governance (ESG) funds, boutique finance groups, family offices, oil and gas companies and corporations are all providing pre-NTP financing, and development loans are becoming a more common way for developers to cover pre-NTP costs.

2. Sponsors should look for development lenders that understand the typical risks and delays associated with the project development process. Development lenders need to be flexible and ready to accommodate development delays and other unexpected issues that arise as a project is brought to market. (This includes flexibility related to amendments and consents.) Lenders should be prepared to quickly provide amendments and waivers to address changes in a project’s timeline as it progresses toward NTP.

3. Price should not be the only thing developers consider when deciding which source of development capital to use. Developers should ensure that they and the capital providers are aligned when it comes to deadlines for NTP to occur, capacity to accommodate delays in the development process and the share of income generated from the project.

4. Development capital is essentially a bet on a development team, and in evaluating a development team, development lenders assess what experience management has and their success working together to bring projects to market. Development lenders want to see that a development team has people who know how to mitigate risk across the various segments of the development process (e.g., origination, site control, permitting, power marketing, etc.).

5. Power purchase agreements (PPAs) are becoming scarcer and shorter (10-year terms are replacing 25-year terms), and lenders and investors are getting more comfortable with providing capital to merchant projects and other projects that have traditionally struggled to obtain financing.

To access past webinars in this series and to begin receiving Energy updates, including invitations to the webinar series, please click here.




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